Historically, the Phoenix Metropolitan market most negatively affected by volatile market conditions in macro terms (including both Maricopa and Pinal counties), are those areas with the greatest concentration of subprime loans originated between the years 2003-2007.  In general, the late stages of 2005 and the first half of 2006 first appeared to reflect downward pressure on pricing with an increase in listing inventories in many areas.  Additionally, outlying communities with significant new SFR construction, with lower price points have been adversely affected to the greatest extent. Core areas with established infrastructure have out-performed these outlying areas in terms of overall market value decline.  

Beginning in second and third quarter of 2011 the markets showed signs of stabilization and recovery by virtue of markets housing inventories expressing three to four months or less of housing inventory. The housing inventories have commonly conveyed in many markets below the commonly held notion of "balanced" (i.e. three to four months of housing inventory) where the demand for trailing periods of three to nine months of housing absorption rates is greater than the supply of SFR's as listings.  Succinctly, it appears that certain markets are prudently reported as balanced and a trend toward a Sellers market.  

Proficient real estate professionals across Maricopa and Pinal counties initially reported a significant drop in inventory coinciding with the national foreclosure moratorium from publicly traded national banking institutions in the highly publicized "robo-signing" of trustees notices.  Following the moratorium, the national multi-billion dollar settlement concerning the five largest mortgage services in the 1st quarter 2012 set the stage for conditions conducive to typical macro market conditions which may have lead to the Phoenix Metro market's noted rates of appreciation.  Unequivocally, Phoenix Metro (Maricopa and Pinal counties) as reported by two leading index agencies (Federal Housing Finance Agency and Case-Shiller) lead the entire US domestic markets for overall appreciation for the period of late 2011 (3rd quarter) to late 2012 (4th quarter).  

Phoenix Metro has conveyed and expressed robust appreciation rates from a macro perspective starting in third quarter 2011 until third quarter 2013, however, it should be noted that recently, intrinsic relative quantitative changes in the market most notably the relative increase in mortgage lending rates since second quarter 2013, the decrease in the raw number of resales, an increase in the raw number of listings, and continual subsiding foreclosures have conveyed and expressed a relative increasing trailing monthly housing supply which has resulted in downward pressure on the markets as a whole.  The downward pressure on the markets appear to have staved off the prior relative robust appreciation rates to more conventional appreciation rates starting in the fourth quarter of 2013.  The downward pressure from a fundamental perspective have caused some of the segmented submarkets to convey One-Unit Housing Trends as Stable as early as the first and second quarters of 2014. Additionally, from a macro perspective increasing housing supply  in the second and third quarters of 2014 has applied modest downward pressure on the markets as a whole relative to prior recent time periods in late 2013 and early 2014.   The years of 2014-2015, Phoenix Metro widespread experienced appreciation and in some localized markets in proximity to infrastructure experienced robust appreciation as job creation reporting was gaining momentum and interest rates were at lower than typical pricing.  

The following serves as a current overall commentary regarding the Phoenix Metro’s economic conditions that are impacting the overall market area:

2016 was a year of housing supply balancing out and conveying monthly supply of traditional eras of similar balance and in turn stable price points with some areas experiencing nominal appreciation.  2017 has followed the same trends and market stabilization with areas located closest to supporting infrastructure conveying market appreciation rates.  Gentrification and development "in-fill" projects and one-off site developments are a trend as of late within these areas most proximal to supporting infrastructure.  2017 conveys robust job environment and population growth in the positive for Phoenix Metro which are the driving factors in the appreciation rates noted and at a minimum the market stabilization starting in 2016 and to beyond.  Investor demand from both inside and outside Phoenix Metro has been robust, a recent study (ATTOM Data Solutions) in Q2 2017 the county of Maricopa lead the entire country for number of "flips".  2018 has expressed strong indicators in the residential real estate market for Phoenix metro thru the first two quarters of activity both in price stabilization and in some areas appreciation.  Localized markets in proximity to infrastructure, upper echelon ranked public/private schools, retail centers, public transportation, and employment centers are expressing robust appreciation.  Recently record low unemployment levels, robust job growth, compressed lending interest rates, and high net positive immigration to the state have all contributed to the early 2018 positive trends for real estate pricing and metrics.  In-fill projects continue to be an emphasis for builders and investors for submarkets near the aforementioned higher level supporting infrastructure.  New construction and re-engineered existing building stock (remodel projects) have trended toward higher fenestration levels (larger natural light openings) and inside/outside living concepts for homes generating the highest sales metrics ($/SF).

To establish additional support regarding Phoenix Metro, and namely Maricopa County’s robust economy and overall improving macro economic conditions over the course of 2012-2017, the appraiser cites an article reported by Phoenix Business Journal.  Maricopa County from this five year period has lead the entire country for counties in terms of people moving from outside and into Maricopa County.  Positive net migration is a core component to robust local economic growth.  Maricopa county saw 221,000 people for inbound migration: